When will automated vehicles be available?

Automated driving refers not only to fully automated vehicles, but also includes all intermediate stages of development. This development is described by the SAE stage model. It is still unclear when fully automated vehicles will be available. What is clear, however, is that the process is largely dependent on the technical and political framework conditions.

Translated with DeepL

Automated driving refers not only to fully automated vehicles, but also includes all intermediate stages of development. This development is described by the SAE stage model. It is still unclear when fully automated vehicles will be available. What is clear, however, is that the process is largely dependent on the technical and political framework conditions.

The stages of vehicle automation

In order to make the development from non-automated vehicles to fully self-driving vehicles tangible, the American Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE ) has developed a stage model that differentiates between various levels of automation. This categorisation has become established worldwide and is used to describe more precisely what is meant by automated vehicles.

  • SAE level 0 means no automation. Humans have full control over the vehicle and steer it themselves at all times without the support of assistance systems.
  • SAE level 1 vehicles are equipped with simple assistance systems, such as cruise control, anti-lock braking systems or stability control functions; such systems are already included in many vehicles today. Cruise control, a system for maintaining speed, has been around since the 1960s.
  • SAE level 2 describes partial automation. This usually includes advanced assistance systems for emergency braking or collision avoidance. The vehicle is controlled by humans at all times, even if they are supported by systems. Such assistance systems have been used in current vehicles for some time and are soon to become mandatory for new cars.
  • SAE level 3 vehicles are able to take over the driving task comprehensively and permanently in specified operating areas, such as on motorways and in favourable weather conditions, without the person behind the wheel having to monitor the journey. If the system reaches its limits, for example because it leaves the specified operating ranges, the weather conditions change or due to other incidents, the person must take over the driving task immediately after being requested to do so by the vehicle.
  • SAE level 4 vehicles can drive automatically in specified areas under restrictive operating conditions if the corresponding infrastructure, such as lane markings and detailed maps, is available. If these conditions are not met, the vehicle ends the journey by automatically braking and parking or moving to another state of minimal risk. Such vehicles are referred to as highly automated.
  • SAE level 5 vehicles are described as fully automated and are able to drive independently - regardless of road conditions, situation and weather. According to current design studies, steering wheels and pedals are no longer even offered. The real challenges in the development of hardware and software for automated driving relate to SAE levels 3 to 5.

Criteria for market penetration

Some of today's cars have high-calibre assistance systems and can already do a lot. Manufacturers speak of semi-automated systems of SAE level 2.5 or 2+. Due to the marketing effect of such announcements, car manufacturers often announce vehicles with a higher degree of automation prematurely. They usually mean the availability of the first vehicles and not the series production of entire fleets. The fact that highly automated and fully automated SAE level 5 vehicles will one day become a reality is hardly in doubt today. This raises all the more questions about their introduction. Many studies and institutions have looked into possible steps for the introduction of passenger and goods transport vehicles and are trying to estimate how quickly automated vehicles can penetrate the market.

A differentiated picture is only possible if the scenarios are broken down into automation levels and areas of application. At the same time, a distinction must be made between the availability of the first vehicles and commercial fleet maturity, as there are years, if not decades, in between.

Even if the availability of automated vehicles is guaranteed soon, there are a number of arguments against rapid market penetration. The additional costs, for example, are still difficult to estimate. However, if equipped with highly reliable sensor technology, these could be considerable and amount to an estimated ten to twenty thousand Swiss francs per car. At present, the cost of sensor technology alone is in the range of a small to medium-sized car. As many of the advantages will only be realised when a high proportion of autonomous vehicles are on the road, supportive measures and framework conditions are needed to speed up their introduction. One possible measure to shorten the coexistence of vehicles with different levels of automation could be to create incentives for collectively rather than individually used autonomous passenger vehicles.


About the publication

The SATW publication "Autonomous driving. A driver of future mobility". Experts regard automated vehicles as the pinnacle of digitalisation, particularly due to their technical complexity. However, autonomous vehicles are not only of interest to the public for this reason, but also because mobility is of fundamental importance to modern society and therefore affects everyone. The publication creates a link between a general overview with answers to the most important questions about automated vehicles and in-depth individual contributions. This series of blog posts picks up on various topics that reflect the generic introduction of the publication.